Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 14Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Stadion Wojska Polskiego
Legia Warszawa
3rd · 24 pts17:30KICK-OFF WAT
Raków Częstochowa
18th · 6 pts77% Legia
14% Draw
9% Raków
OUR PICK
Legia Warszawa to win
Model probability 77% · fair odds
1.30
Expected goals
2.72 – 0.82
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.30X7.09211.40
Goals 2.5Over1.46Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.46
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.10
1X
91%
Season stats
Legia WarszawaRaków Częstochowa1.8Goals per game1.3
0.8Conceded per game2.3
1.85Points per game0.50
46%Win rate17%
12Goal difference-12
8Form, last 5 (pts)3
Legia Warszawa form
DLDWWA Gornik Zabrze0–0
H Lech Poznan1–2
A Cracovia Krakow1–1
H Wisla Krakow2–0
H Korona Kielce5–1
Raków Częstochowa form
DLWLWA Motor Lublin1–1
A Wisla Krakow2–1
A Wieczysta Kraków1–2
H GKS Katowice1–4
H Polonia Bytom4–1
Head to head
0
Legia
3
Draw
2
Raków
Mar 2026Legia Warszawa – Raków Częstochowa1–1
Sept 2025Raków Częstochowa – Legia Warszawa1–1
Mar 2025Raków Częstochowa – Legia Warszawa3–2
Sept 2024Legia Warszawa – Raków Częstochowa0–1
Apr 2024Raków Częstochowa – Legia Warszawa1–1
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin11+1024
5GKS Katowice13+621
6Piast Gliwice13+421
7Wisla Krakow13+221
8Zaglebie Lubin12019
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce12-418
Match preview
Our model makes Legia Warszawa clear favourites, giving them a 77% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.30 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.72 for Legia Warszawa, 0.82 for Raków Częstochowa), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Legia Warszawa sit 3rd on 24 points; Raków Częstochowa are 18th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.