Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 12Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Polish Army Stadium
Legia Warszawa
3rd · 24 pts1–2FULL TIME
Lech Poznan
1st · 31 pts39% Legia
26% Draw
36% Lech
OUR PICK
Legia Warszawa to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.59
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.34
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.59X3.9122.79
Goals 2.5Over1.94Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.80NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.80
GG
56%
Double chance@1.34
12
74%
Season stats
Legia WarszawaLech Poznan1.8Goals per game2.7
0.8Conceded per game0.9
1.85Points per game2.58
46%Win rate83%
12Goal difference21
8Form, last 5 (pts)15
Legia Warszawa form
DLDWWA Gornik Zabrze0–0
H Lech Poznan1–2
A Cracovia Krakow1–1
H Wisla Krakow2–0
H Korona Kielce5–1
Lech Poznan form
WLWDWH Wisla Krakow3–1
A Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0
A Legia Warszawa1–2
H Sunderland1–1
H Korona Kielce6–1
Head to head
1
Legia
1
Draw
3
Lech
Oct 2026Legia Warszawa – Lech Poznan1–2
Apr 2026Lech Poznan – Legia Warszawa4–0
Oct 2025Legia Warszawa – Lech Poznan0–0
Jul 2025Lech Poznan – Legia Warszawa1–2
May 2025Legia Warszawa – Lech Poznan0–1
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin11+1024
5GKS Katowice13+621
6Piast Gliwice13+421
7Wisla Krakow13+221
8Zaglebie Lubin12019
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce12-418
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Legia Warszawa 39%, the draw 26%, Lech Poznan 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.59 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.40 for Legia Warszawa, 1.34 for Lech Poznan), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Legia Warszawa sit 3rd on 24 points; Lech Poznan are 1st on 31.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.