Over 1.5 goals@1.77
Over 1.5
57%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 10Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Elland Road
Leeds
12th · 11 pts13:30KICK-OFF WAT
Tottenham
9th · 12 pts42% Leeds
31% Draw
27% Tottenham
OUR PICK
Leeds to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.39
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.81
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.39X3.1923.72
Goals 2.5Over3.14Under1.42
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.58
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.42
Under 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.58
NG
63%
Double chance@1.37
1X
73%
Season stats
LeedsTottenham1.0Goals per game1.1
0.9Conceded per game1.1
1.22Points per game1.33
22%Win rate33%
1Goal difference0
3Form, last 5 (pts)10
Leeds form
LDDLDA Bournemouth2–0
A Sunderland0–0
H Manchester United1–1
A Arsenal2–1
H Crystal Palace0–0
Tottenham form
WWWDLH Crystal Palace2–0
A Chelsea0–2
H Coventry3–1
A Manchester United1–1
H Aston Villa2–3
Head to head
0
Leeds
1
Draw
4
Tottenham
May 2026Tottenham – Leeds1–1
Oct 2025Leeds – Tottenham1–2
May 2023Leeds – Tottenham1–4
Nov 2022Tottenham – Leeds4–3
Feb 2022Leeds – Tottenham0–4
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Leeds slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 31% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.09 for Leeds, 0.81 for Tottenham), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Leeds sit 12th on 11 points; Tottenham are 9th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.