Over 1.5 goals@1.49
Over 1.5
67%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Elland Road
Leeds
11th · 11 pts1–1FULL TIME
Manchester United
17th · 7 pts53% Leeds
26% Draw
21% Manchester
OUR PICK
Leeds to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.82
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X3.8024.84
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.68
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.68
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.77
NG
57%
Double chance@1.26
1X
79%
Season stats
LeedsManchester United1.0Goals per game1.1
0.9Conceded per game1.7
1.22Points per game0.78
22%Win rate11%
1Goal difference-5
3Form, last 5 (pts)3
Leeds form
LDDLDA Bournemouth2–0
A Sunderland0–0
H Manchester United1–1
A Arsenal2–1
H Crystal Palace0–0
Manchester United form
LLLDLA Chelsea2–0
H Bournemouth0–3
A Como4–1
A Leeds1–1
A Atletico Madrid2–0
Head to head
1
Leeds
4
Draw
0
Manchester
Oct 2026Leeds – Manchester United1–1
Aug 2026Manchester United – Leeds1–1
Apr 2026Manchester United – Leeds1–2
Jan 2026Leeds – Manchester United1–1
Jul 2025Manchester United – Leeds0–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Leeds clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.49 for Leeds, 0.82 for Manchester United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Leeds sit 11th on 11 points; Manchester United are 17th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.