Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
80%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 14Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Stadion Poznan
Lech Poznan
1st · 31 pts20:15KICK-OFF WAT
Zaglebie Lubin
5th · 22 pts69% Lech
19% Draw
13% Zaglebie
OUR PICK
Lech Poznan to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.45
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.82
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.45X5.3827.92
Goals 2.5Over1.72Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.89NG1.99
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.99
NG
50%
Double chance@1.14
1X
87%
Season stats
Lech PoznanZaglebie Lubin2.7Goals per game1.2
0.9Conceded per game1.2
2.58Points per game1.69
83%Win rate46%
21Goal difference1
15Form, last 5 (pts)7
Lech Poznan form
WLWDWH Wisla Krakow3–1
A Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0
A Legia Warszawa1–2
H Sunderland1–1
H Korona Kielce6–1
Zaglebie Lubin form
DWLWA Motor Lublin2–2
H Jagiellonia1–0
A Cracovia Krakow3–1
H Miedz Legnica1–0
Head to head
4
Lech
0
Draw
1
Zaglebie
Mar 2026Zaglebie Lubin – Lech Poznan0–1
Sept 2025Lech Poznan – Zaglebie Lubin1–2
Feb 2025Lech Poznan – Zaglebie Lubin3–1
Aug 2024Zaglebie Lubin – Lech Poznan0–1
Feb 2024Lech Poznan – Zaglebie Lubin2–0
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin12+824
5Zaglebie Lubin13+122
6GKS Katowice13+621
7Piast Gliwice13+421
8Wisla Krakow13+221
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce13-518
Match preview
Our model makes Lech Poznan clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.20 for Lech Poznan, 0.82 for Zaglebie Lubin), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lech Poznan sit 1st on 31 points; Zaglebie Lubin are 5th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.