Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Stadion Miejski
Lech Poznan
32nd · 1 pts1–1FULL TIME
Sunderland
9th · 7 pts15% Lech
20% Draw
65% Sunderland
OUR PICK
Sunderland to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
0.89 – 2.09
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X216.66X5.0121.54
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.94NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.94
GG
52%
Double chance@1.18
X2
85%
Season stats
Lech PoznanSunderland0.3Goals per game1.3
3.0Conceded per game0.7
0.33Points per game2.33
0%Win rate67%
-8Goal difference2
1Form, last 5 (pts)7
Lech Poznan form
WLWDWH Wisla Krakow3–1
A Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0
A Legia Warszawa1–2
H Sunderland1–1
H Korona Kielce6–1
Sunderland form
LWDDLA Coventry3–1
H Brentford3–2
H Leeds0–0
A Lech Poznan1–1
A Bournemouth2–0
Head to head
0
Lech
1
Draw
0
Sunderland
Oct 2026Lech Poznan – Sunderland1–1
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Sunderland clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (0.89 for Lech Poznan, 2.09 for Sunderland), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lech Poznan sit 32nd on 1 points; Sunderland are 9th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.