Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 11Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Stadion Poznan
Lech Poznan
1st · 31 pts6–1FULL TIME
Korona Kielce
10th · 18 pts63% Lech
21% Draw
15% Korona
OUR PICK
Lech Poznan to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.81
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.58X4.6826.61
Goals 2.5Over1.95Under1.93
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.18
1X
85%
Season stats
Lech PoznanKorona Kielce2.7Goals per game1.2
0.9Conceded per game1.5
2.58Points per game1.50
83%Win rate42%
21Goal difference-4
15Form, last 5 (pts)6
Lech Poznan form
WLWDWH Wisla Krakow3–1
A Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0
A Legia Warszawa1–2
H Sunderland1–1
H Korona Kielce6–1
Korona Kielce form
No recent matches.
Head to head
4
Lech
1
Draw
0
Korona
Oct 2026Lech Poznan – Korona Kielce6–1
Feb 2026Korona Kielce – Lech Poznan1–2
Aug 2025Lech Poznan – Korona Kielce1–1
Apr 2025Lech Poznan – Korona Kielce2–0
Sept 2024Korona Kielce – Lech Poznan2–3
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin11+1024
5GKS Katowice13+621
6Piast Gliwice13+421
7Wisla Krakow13+221
8Zaglebie Lubin12019
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce12-418
Match preview
Our model makes Lech Poznan clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.92 for Lech Poznan, 0.81 for Korona Kielce), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lech Poznan sit 1st on 31 points; Korona Kielce are 10th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.