Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
75%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Stadion Miejski
Lech Poznan
32nd · 1 pts0–4FULL TIME
Bayer Leverkusen
2nd · 9 pts18% Lech
23% Draw
60% Bayer
OUR PICK
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.68
Expected goals
0.89 – 1.83
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.58X4.4321.68
Goals 2.5Over1.96Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.98
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.98
NG
51%
Double chance@1.22
X2
82%
Season stats
Lech PoznanBayer Leverkusen0.3Goals per game2.7
3.0Conceded per game0.0
0.33Points per game3.00
0%Win rate100%
-8Goal difference8
1Form, last 5 (pts)9
Lech Poznan form
WLWDWH Wisla Krakow3–1
A Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0
A Legia Warszawa1–2
H Sunderland1–1
H Korona Kielce6–1
Bayer Leverkusen form
LWLWWH VfB Stuttgart2–4
H 1. FC Nürnberg5–2
A 1899 Hoffenheim3–0
A OFI0–2
H SC Freiburg2–1
Head to head
0
Lech
0
Draw
1
Bayer
Oct 2026Lech Poznan – Bayer Leverkusen0–4
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.68 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (0.89 for Lech Poznan, 1.83 for Bayer Leverkusen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lech Poznan sit 32nd on 1 points; Bayer Leverkusen are 2nd on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.