Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
ITASerie A · Matchday 10Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Stadio Via del Mare
Lecce
14th · 9 pts1–2FULL TIME
Genoa
13th · 10 pts39% Lecce
27% Draw
34% Genoa
OUR PICK
Lecce to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.55
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.55X3.7422.94
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.94NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.94
GG
51%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
LecceGenoa1.1Goals per game0.9
2.1Conceded per game1.4
1.00Points per game1.11
33%Win rate33%
-9Goal difference-5
3Form, last 5 (pts)9
Lecce form
No recent matches.
Genoa form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Lecce
0
Draw
0
Genoa
These sides haven't met recently.
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Napoli9+614
8Bologna10+114
9Juventus9+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Lecce 39%, the draw 27%, Genoa 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.55 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.32 for Lecce, 1.21 for Genoa), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lecce sit 14th on 9 points; Genoa are 13th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.