Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
ITASerie A · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stadio Via del Mare
Lecce
14th · 9 pts1–2FULL TIME
Bologna
9th · 14 pts31% Lecce
25% Draw
44% Bologna
OUR PICK
Bologna to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.26
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.55
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.25X4.0122.26
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.78NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.78
GG
56%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
LecceBologna1.1Goals per game1.4
2.1Conceded per game1.3
0.90Points per game1.40
30%Win rate40%
-10Goal difference1
3Form, last 5 (pts)12
Lecce form
LLLWLH Genoa1–2
A Frosinone5–1
H Juventus0–2
A Udinese0–3
H Bologna1–2
Bologna form
WWWLWH Monza2–1
A AC Milan2–4
A Cagliari0–2
H Inter1–3
A Lecce1–2
Head to head
0
Lecce
2
Draw
3
Bologna
Oct 2026Lecce – Bologna1–2
Apr 2026Bologna – Lecce2–0
Sept 2025Lecce – Bologna2–2
Feb 2025Lecce – Bologna0–0
Nov 2024Bologna – Lecce1–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Bologna slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.26 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.25 for Lecce, 1.55 for Bologna), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lecce sit 14th on 9 points; Bologna are 9th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.