Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
80%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 7Friday, 16 October 2026 · Stade Marie-Marvingt
Le Mans
17th · 7 pts0–3FULL TIME
Toulouse
11th · 10 pts46% Le
24% Draw
30% Toulouse
OUR PICK
Le Mans to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.17
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.30
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.17X4.1723.35
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.69NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.69
GG
59%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Le MansToulouse1.2Goals per game1.3
2.0Conceded per game1.4
0.78Points per game1.11
11%Win rate22%
-7Goal difference-1
4Form, last 5 (pts)8
Le Mans form
LDLLLA Estac Troyes2–0
A Auxerre1–1
H Toulouse0–3
A Paris Saint Germain3–1
A Guingamp2–1
Toulouse form
LDWDLA Marseille2–0
H Estac Troyes0–0
A Le Mans0–3
A Monaco2–2
H PAU2–3
Head to head
0
Le
0
Draw
1
Toulouse
Oct 2026Le Mans – Toulouse0–3
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Lorient8+112
Match preview
Our model makes Le Mans slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.17 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.67 for Le Mans, 1.30 for Toulouse), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Le Mans sit 17th on 7 points; Toulouse are 11th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.