Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 10Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Stade Marie-Marvingt
Le Mans
17th · 7 pts17:15KICK-OFF WAT
Monaco
7th · 15 pts30% Le
25% Draw
44% Monaco
OUR PICK
Monaco to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.25
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.51
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.31X3.9422.25
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Le MansMonaco1.2Goals per game1.3
2.0Conceded per game1.1
0.78Points per game1.67
11%Win rate44%
-7Goal difference2
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Le Mans form
LDLLLA Estac Troyes2–0
A Auxerre1–1
H Toulouse0–3
A Paris Saint Germain3–1
A Guingamp2–1
Monaco form
LDWLWA Paris FC3–1
H Lille1–1
H SC Freiburg3–0
A Lorient1–0
A CSKA Sofia1–2
Head to head
0
Le
1
Draw
3
Monaco
May 2013Monaco – Le Mans2–1
Dec 2012Le Mans – Monaco2–3
Mar 2012Le Mans – Monaco0–1
Nov 2011Monaco – Le Mans2–2
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Stade Brestois 299+412
Match preview
Our model makes Monaco slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.20 for Le Mans, 1.51 for Monaco), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Le Mans sit 17th on 7 points; Monaco are 7th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.