ITASerie A · Matchday 8Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Stadio Olimpico

Lazio

1st · 25 pts

2–1FULL TIME

Parma

18th · 5 pts

81% Lazio

14% Draw

6% Parma

OUR PICK

Lazio to win

Model probability 81% · fair odds

1.24

Expected goals

2.49 – 0.50

Confidence

Very high

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.24X7.36218.00

Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19

Both scoreGG2.62NG1.56

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.25

Over 1.5

80%

Over/Under 2.5@1.75

Over 2.5

57%

Both teams to score@1.56

64%

Double chance@1.06

94%

Season stats

LazioParma

2.4Goals per game0.6

0.8Conceded per game1.7

2.78Points per game0.56

89%Win rate11%

15Goal difference-10

15Form, last 5 (pts)4

Lazio form

WWWWW

H Cagliari2–1

A Sassuolo2–6

H Parma2–1

A Juventus0–3

H Monza3–1

Parma form

DLLLW

H Udinese0–0

A Lazio2–1

H Torino0–3

A Inter3–0

H Genoa2–1

Head to head

Lazio

Draw

Parma

Oct 2026Lazio – Parma2–1

Apr 2026Lazio – Parma1–1

Dec 2025Parma – Lazio0–1

Apr 2025Lazio – Parma2–2

Dec 2024Parma – Lazio3–1

Serie A table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Lazio9+1525

2Inter10+1325

3AS Roma10+1824

4AC Milan10+921

5Como9+920

6Frosinone9+817

7Napoli9+614

8Bologna10+114

9Juventus9+114

10Torino9013

Match preview

Our model makes Lazio clear favourites, giving them a 81% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.49 for Lazio, 0.50 for Parma), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Lazio sit 1st on 25 points; Parma are 18th on 5.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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