Over 1.5 goals@1.09
Over 1.5
92%
ITASerie A · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio
1st · 28 pts3–1FULL TIME
Monza
16th · 7 pts79% Lazio
12% Draw
9% Monza
OUR PICK
Lazio to win
Model probability 79% · fair odds
1.27
Expected goals
3.13 – 0.99
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.27X8.08211.63
Goals 2.5Over1.29Under4.29
Both scoreGG1.66NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.29
Over 2.5
78%
Both teams to score@1.66
GG
60%
Double chance@1.09
1X
91%
Season stats
LazioMonza2.4Goals per game1.7
0.8Conceded per game2.4
2.80Points per game0.70
90%Win rate20%
16Goal difference-7
15Form, last 5 (pts)3
Lazio form
WWWWWH Cagliari2–1
A Sassuolo2–6
H Parma2–1
A Juventus0–3
H Monza3–1
Monza form
LLLWLA Bologna2–1
H Napoli1–4
A Torino3–2
H Cagliari4–0
A Lazio3–1
Head to head
3
Lazio
2
Draw
0
Monza
Oct 2026Lazio – Monza3–1
Feb 2025Lazio – Monza5–1
Nov 2024Monza – Lazio0–1
May 2024Monza – Lazio2–2
Sept 2023Lazio – Monza1–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Lazio clear favourites, giving them a 79% chance of winning against 12% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (3.13 for Lazio, 0.99 for Monza), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lazio sit 1st on 28 points; Monza are 16th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.