Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
ITASerie A · Matchday 10Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio
1st · 25 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
Cagliari
11th · 13 pts74% Lazio
17% Draw
9% Cagliari
OUR PICK
Lazio to win
Model probability 74% · fair odds
1.34
Expected goals
2.28 – 0.64
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.34X5.99211.33
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.74
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.74
NG
58%
Double chance@1.10
1X
91%
Season stats
LazioCagliari2.4Goals per game0.9
0.8Conceded per game1.4
2.78Points per game1.44
89%Win rate44%
15Goal difference-5
15Form, last 5 (pts)4
Lazio form
No recent matches.
Cagliari form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Lazio
0
Draw
0
Cagliari
These sides haven't met recently.
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio9+1525
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4AC Milan10+921
5Como9+920
6Frosinone9+817
7Napoli9+614
8Bologna10+114
9Juventus9+114
10Torino9013
Match preview
Our model makes Lazio clear favourites, giving them a 74% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (2.28 for Lazio, 0.64 for Cagliari), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lazio sit 1st on 25 points; Cagliari are 11th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.