Over 1.5 goals@1.45
Over 1.5
69%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 4 October 2026 · Cashman Field
Las Vegas Lights
1–0FULL TIME
San Antonio
35% Las
28% Draw
37% San
OUR PICK
San Antonio to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.71
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.82X3.6122.71
Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.75
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Under 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.95
NG
51%
Double chance@1.38
12
72%
Las Vegas Lights form
LLLWLA Monterey Bay2–1
H Lexington3–5
A Phoenix Rising3–2
H San Antonio1–0
A Sacramento Republic3–2
San Antonio form
LWWDLA El Paso Locomotive2–1
H Orange County SC2–1
H New Mexico United1–0
A Oakland Roots0–0
A Las Vegas Lights1–0
Head to head
2
Las
2
Draw
1
San
Oct 2026Las Vegas Lights – San Antonio1–0
Jul 2026San Antonio – Las Vegas Lights1–2
Aug 2025Las Vegas Lights – San Antonio1–1
Jun 2025San Antonio – Las Vegas Lights3–0
May 2024San Antonio – Las Vegas Lights1–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Las Vegas Lights 35%, the draw 28%, San Antonio 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.18 for Las Vegas Lights, 1.21 for San Antonio), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.