Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 18 October 2026 · Cashman Field
Las Vegas Lights
3–5FULL TIME
Lexington
31% Las
24% Draw
45% Lexington
OUR PICK
Lexington to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.22
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.68
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.21X4.2022.22
Goals 2.5Over1.71Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
60%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Las Vegas Lights form
LLLWLA Monterey Bay2–1
H Lexington3–5
A Phoenix Rising3–2
H San Antonio1–0
A Sacramento Republic3–2
Lexington form
DDWDWH Colorado Springs1–1
A Phoenix Rising3–3
A Las Vegas Lights3–5
H FC Tulsa0–0
H El Paso Locomotive3–1
Head to head
2
Las
1
Draw
2
Lexington
Oct 2026Las Vegas Lights – Lexington3–5
Aug 2026Lexington – Las Vegas Lights2–0
May 2026Las Vegas Lights – Lexington2–1
Aug 2025Las Vegas Lights – Lexington1–0
Apr 2025Lexington – Las Vegas Lights0–0
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Lexington slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.22 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.36 for Las Vegas Lights, 1.68 for Lexington), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.