Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 11Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Estadio de Gran Canaria
Las Palmas
11th · 17 pts1–0FULL TIME
Real Sociedad II
18th · 11 pts49% Las
21% Draw
29% Real
OUR PICK
Las Palmas to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.03
Expected goals
2.07 – 1.57
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.03X4.7223.40
Goals 2.5Over1.42Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.45NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.42
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.45
GG
69%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
Las PalmasReal Sociedad II1.4Goals per game1.3
1.8Conceded per game1.8
1.42Points per game0.92
42%Win rate25%
-4Goal difference-7
7Form, last 5 (pts)3
Las Palmas form
WWWLLA Oviedo2–3
A RSD Alcalá1–3
H Real Sociedad II1–0
H Castellón0–3
A Mallorca3–1
Real Sociedad II form
WLLLLH Girona1–0
A Las Palmas1–0
H Almeria2–4
A Celta de Vigo II4–1
H Granada CF2–3
Head to head
3
Las
2
Draw
0
Real
Oct 2026Las Palmas – Real Sociedad II1–0
Jan 2026Real Sociedad II – Las Palmas1–1
Sept 2025Las Palmas – Real Sociedad II2–1
Jan 2022Las Palmas – Real Sociedad II0–0
Oct 2021Real Sociedad II – Las Palmas0–1
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Mallorca12+822
6Sporting Gijon12022
7Girona12+1121
8Burgos12+421
9Oviedo12+218
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Las Palmas slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.03 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.07 for Las Palmas, 1.57 for Real Sociedad II), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Las Palmas sit 11th on 17 points; Real Sociedad II are 18th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.