Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
72%
ESPSegunda División · Matchday 10Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio de Gran Canaria
Las Palmas
14th · 14 pts0–3FULL TIME
Castellón
1st · 27 pts17% Las
24% Draw
59% Castellón
OUR PICK
Castellón to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.69
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.72
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.83X4.2421.69
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.21
X2
83%
Season stats
Las PalmasCastellón1.3Goals per game1.9
1.7Conceded per game0.4
1.27Points per game2.25
36%Win rate67%
-5Goal difference18
4Form, last 5 (pts)8
Las Palmas form
WWLLDA RSD Alcalá1–3
H Real Sociedad II1–0
H Castellón0–3
A Mallorca3–1
H Valladolid2–2
Castellón form
DWWWLA Burgos1–1
A Conquense0–3
H Sporting Gijon4–0
A Las Palmas0–3
A FC Andorra1–0
Head to head
1
Las
1
Draw
3
Castellón
Oct 2026Las Palmas – Castellón0–3
Feb 2026Las Palmas – Castellón1–1
Nov 2025Castellón – Las Palmas1–0
Feb 2021Castellón – Las Palmas4–0
Oct 2020Las Palmas – Castellón2–1
Segunda División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Castellón12+1827
2Almeria12+1326
3Eibar12+723
4Granada CF12+623
5Sporting Gijon12022
6Girona12+1121
7Burgos12+421
8Mallorca11+719
9Oviedo11+318
10Sabadell12+117
Match preview
Our model makes Castellón clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.80 for Las Palmas, 1.72 for Castellón), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Las Palmas sit 14th on 14 points; Castellón are 1st on 27.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.