Over 1.5 goals@1.78
Over 1.5
56%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12Monday, 12 October 2026 · Estadio Ciudad de Lanus
Lanus
6th · 24 pts2–0FULL TIME
Velez Sarsfield
3rd · 28 pts30% Lanus
32% Draw
38% Velez
OUR PICK
Velez Sarsfield to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.61
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.02
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.36X3.1422.61
Goals 2.5Over3.25Under1.41
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.58
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Under 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.58
NG
63%
Double chance@1.42
X2
70%
Season stats
LanusVelez Sarsfield1.1Goals per game1.1
0.9Conceded per game0.8
1.50Points per game1.75
38%Win rate44%
3Goal difference6
9Form, last 5 (pts)8
Lanus form
DDWWDH Gimnasia M.1–1
A Banfield1–1
A Platense0–1
H Velez Sarsfield2–0
A Newells Old Boys0–0
Velez Sarsfield form
DWWLDH San Lorenzo2–2
A Central Cordoba de Santiago0–5
H Gimnasia M.1–0
A Lanus2–0
H Platense2–2
Head to head
3
Lanus
1
Draw
1
Velez
Oct 2026Lanus – Velez Sarsfield2–0
Mar 2026Velez Sarsfield – Lanus0–1
Aug 2025Velez Sarsfield – Lanus3–0
May 2025Lanus – Velez Sarsfield2–0
Feb 2025Lanus – Velez Sarsfield0–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Lanus 30%, the draw 32%, Velez Sarsfield 38%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (0.86 for Lanus, 1.02 for Velez Sarsfield), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Lanus sit 6th on 24 points; Velez Sarsfield are 3rd on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.