Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 9Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
Kyoto Sanga
14th · 13 pts0–1FULL TIME
Machida Zelvia
3rd · 28 pts17% Kyoto
19% Draw
64% Machida
OUR PICK
Machida Zelvia to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.55
Expected goals
1.07 – 2.28
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X216.04X5.2721.55
Goals 2.5Over1.54Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.70NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.54
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.70
GG
59%
Double chance@1.20
X2
83%
Season stats
Kyoto SangaMachida Zelvia1.3Goals per game2.3
1.8Conceded per game0.8
1.00Points per game2.15
23%Win rate62%
-6Goal difference20
5Form, last 5 (pts)11
Kyoto Sanga form
WWDDLH Shimizu S-pulse2–0
H Newcastle Jets5–2
A Gamba Osaka2–2
H Kashima2–2
A Sanfrecce Hiroshima3–0
Machida Zelvia form
DWDWWH Gamba Osaka0–0
A Shanghai Shenhua0–1
A Vissel Kobe0–0
A Shimizu S-pulse0–5
H Avispa Fukuoka3–0
Head to head
1
Kyoto
2
Draw
2
Machida
Oct 2026Kyoto Sanga – Machida Zelvia0–1
Oct 2026Machida Zelvia – Kyoto Sanga0–0
Sept 2025Kyoto Sanga – Machida Zelvia1–1
Aug 2025Machida Zelvia – Kyoto Sanga1–0
May 2025Machida Zelvia – Kyoto Sanga1–2
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Machida Zelvia clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.55 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.07 for Kyoto Sanga, 2.28 for Machida Zelvia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kyoto Sanga sit 14th on 13 points; Machida Zelvia are 3rd on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.