Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 11Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
Kyoto Sanga
14th · 13 pts2–2FULL TIME
Kashima
6th · 23 pts30% Kyoto
21% Draw
49% Kashima
OUR PICK
Kashima to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.59 – 2.07
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.35X4.7222.04
Goals 2.5Over1.41Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.44NG3.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.44
GG
70%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
Kyoto SangaKashima1.3Goals per game2.2
1.8Conceded per game1.7
1.00Points per game1.77
23%Win rate54%
-6Goal difference7
5Form, last 5 (pts)10
Kyoto Sanga form
WWDDLH Shimizu S-pulse2–0
H Newcastle Jets5–2
A Gamba Osaka2–2
H Kashima2–2
A Sanfrecce Hiroshima3–0
Kashima form
WWLDWH Cerezo Osaka4–1
H Pohang Steelers3–0
H Kashiwa Reysol2–3
A Kyoto Sanga2–2
H V-varen Nagasaki2–0
Head to head
1
Kyoto
3
Draw
1
Kashima
Oct 2026Kyoto Sanga – Kashima2–2
Oct 2025Kyoto Sanga – Kashima1–1
Apr 2025Kashima – Kyoto Sanga3–4
Nov 2024Kyoto Sanga – Kashima0–0
Apr 2024Kashima – Kyoto Sanga1–0
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Kashima slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (1.59 for Kyoto Sanga, 2.07 for Kashima), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kyoto Sanga sit 14th on 13 points; Kashima are 6th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.