Over 1.5 goals@1.49
Over 1.5
67%
NGANPFL · Matchday 7Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Kwara Sports Stadium
Kwara United
15th · 12 pts2–1FULL TIME
Ranchers Bees
19th · 9 pts42% Kwara
28% Draw
30% Ranchers
OUR PICK
Kwara United to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.36
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.02
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.36X3.5623.38
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.68
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.68
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.86
NG
54%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
Kwara UnitedRanchers Bees1.1Goals per game1.1
1.2Conceded per game1.4
1.09Points per game0.90
27%Win rate20%
-1Goal difference-3
5Form, last 5 (pts)3
Kwara United form
LDDLWH Bendel Insurance1–2
A Barau FC1–1
H Abia Warriors1–1
A Ikorodu City2–0
H Ranchers Bees2–1
Ranchers Bees form
DLDLDA Inter Lagos1–1
A Shooting Stars3–1
H Niger Tornadoes0–0
A Kwara United2–1
H Rivers United0–0
Head to head
1
Kwara
0
Draw
0
Ranchers
Oct 2026Kwara United – Ranchers Bees2–1
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Kwara United slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.36 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.28 for Kwara United, 1.02 for Ranchers Bees), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kwara United sit 15th on 12 points; Ranchers Bees are 19th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.