Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
NGANPFL · Matchday 11Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Kwara Sports Stadium
Kwara United
15th · 12 pts1–2FULL TIME
Bendel Insurance
3rd · 18 pts42% Kwara
25% Draw
34% Bendel
OUR PICK
Kwara United to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.40
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.36
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.40X4.0522.97
Goals 2.5Over1.81Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.71NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.71
GG
58%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Kwara UnitedBendel Insurance1.1Goals per game1.8
1.2Conceded per game1.5
1.09Points per game1.80
27%Win rate60%
-1Goal difference3
5Form, last 5 (pts)9
Kwara United form
LDDLWH Bendel Insurance1–2
A Barau FC1–1
H Abia Warriors1–1
A Ikorodu City2–0
H Ranchers Bees2–1
Bendel Insurance form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Kwara
0
Draw
0
Bendel
These sides haven't met recently.
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Kwara United 42%, the draw 25%, Bendel Insurance 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.40 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.54 for Kwara United, 1.36 for Bendel Insurance), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kwara United sit 15th on 12 points; Bendel Insurance are 3rd on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.