Over 1.5 goals@1.53
Over 1.5
65%
NGANPFL · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Kwara Sports Stadium
Kwara United
13th · 12 pts1–1FULL TIME
Abia Warriors
17th · 10 pts50% Kwara
27% Draw
23% Abia
OUR PICK
Kwara United to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.01
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.84
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.01X3.6424.41
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.63
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.74
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.74
NG
57%
Double chance@1.29
1X
77%
Season stats
Kwara UnitedAbia Warriors1.1Goals per game0.9
1.1Conceded per game1.3
1.20Points per game1.00
30%Win rate20%
0Goal difference-4
5Form, last 5 (pts)5
Kwara United form
LDDLWH Bendel Insurance1–2
A Barau FC1–1
H Abia Warriors1–1
A Ikorodu City2–0
H Ranchers Bees2–1
Abia Warriors form
LLDDLA Shooting Stars4–1
H Niger Tornadoes0–1
A Kwara United1–1
H Rivers United0–0
A Enugu Rangers3–1
Head to head
0
Kwara
2
Draw
3
Abia
Oct 2026Kwara United – Abia Warriors1–1
Feb 2026Abia Warriors – Kwara United1–0
Oct 2025Kwara United – Abia Warriors0–1
Feb 2025Kwara United – Abia Warriors0–0
Oct 2024Abia Warriors – Kwara United1–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United10+1017
2Enugu Rangers8+517
3Nasarawa United10+317
4Barau FC11+316
5Niger Tornadoes11+116
6Plateau United10+415
7Bendel Insurance9+215
8Sporting Lagos9+215
9Kano Pillars10+115
10Doma United10015
Match preview
Our model makes Kwara United slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.39 for Kwara United, 0.84 for Abia Warriors), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kwara United sit 13th on 12 points; Abia Warriors are 17th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.