BELJupiler Pro League · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Veoliastadion Achter De Kazerne

KV Mechelen

14th · 9 pts

4–3FULL TIME

St. Truiden

15th · 8 pts

32% KV

25% Draw

43% St.

OUR PICK

St. Truiden to win

Model probability 43% · fair odds

2.30

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.56

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X213.14X4.0422.30

Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05

Both scoreGG1.74NG2.19

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.28

Over 1.5

78%

Over/Under 2.5@1.84

Over 2.5

54%

Both teams to score@1.74

57%

Double chance@1.33

75%

Season stats

KV MechelenSt. Truiden

1.1Goals per game1.8

1.9Conceded per game2.1

1.00Points per game0.80

22%Win rate20%

-7Goal difference-3

7Form, last 5 (pts)0

KV Mechelen form

WWWLD

H Genk1–0

H AS Eupen5–1

H St. Truiden4–3

H Karpaty2–3

A Lommel United0–0

St. Truiden form

LLWWW

H OH Leuven1–2

A Club Brugge KV3–2

A FC Midtjylland0–1

H Lommel United4–1

H FC Iberia 19992–0

Head to head

Draw

St.

Oct 2026KV Mechelen – St. Truiden4–3

May 2026St. Truiden – KV Mechelen3–0

Apr 2026KV Mechelen – St. Truiden1–4

Dec 2025St. Truiden – KV Mechelen1–0

Oct 2025KV Mechelen – St. Truiden1–3

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Club Brugge KV10+1827

2Union St. Gilloise10+2226

3Gent10+1325

4Charleroi10+924

5Anderlecht10+219

6Genk10+415

7Lommel United10+215

8KVC Westerlo10014

9Standard Liege10-112

10Zulte Waregem10-411

Match preview

Our model makes St. Truiden slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.30 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.30 for KV Mechelen, 1.56 for St. Truiden), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

KV Mechelen sit 14th on 9 points; St. Truiden are 15th on 8.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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