Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 14Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Exbud Arena
Korona Kielce
10th · 18 pts12:15KICK-OFF WAT
Radomiak Radom
15th · 11 pts54% Korona
23% Draw
23% Radomiak
OUR PICK
Korona Kielce to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.84
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.08
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.84X4.3424.44
Goals 2.5Over1.81Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.29
1X
77%
Season stats
Korona KielceRadomiak Radom1.1Goals per game1.2
1.5Conceded per game2.2
1.38Points per game0.85
38%Win rate23%
-5Goal difference-14
6Form, last 5 (pts)3
Korona Kielce form
LLWLLA Zaglebie Lubin1–0
A Polonia Warszawa2–1
H GKS Katowice1–0
A Lech Poznan6–1
A Pogon Szczecin2–0
Radomiak Radom form
WLLLLH Slask Wroclaw3–1
A Avia Świdnik2–1
A Pogon Szczecin4–3
A Wisla Plock1–0
H Motor Lublin2–3
Head to head
2
Korona
0
Draw
3
Radomiak
Feb 2026Radomiak Radom – Korona Kielce0–2
Aug 2025Korona Kielce – Radomiak Radom3–0
Mar 2025Korona Kielce – Radomiak Radom1–3
Sept 2024Radomiak Radom – Korona Kielce4–0
Jun 2024Radomiak Radom – Korona Kielce3–0
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin12+824
5Zaglebie Lubin13+122
6GKS Katowice13+621
7Piast Gliwice13+421
8Wisla Krakow13+221
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce13-518
Match preview
Our model makes Korona Kielce clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.84 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.81 for Korona Kielce, 1.08 for Radomiak Radom), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Korona Kielce sit 10th on 18 points; Radomiak Radom are 15th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.