Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
NOR1. Division · Matchday 29Monday, 2 November 2026 · Gjemselund Stadion
Kongsvinger
3rd · 59 pts19:00KICK-OFF WAT
Stabaek
4th · 55 pts47% Kongsvinger
21% Draw
33% Stabaek
OUR PICK
Kongsvinger to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.14
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.77
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.14X4.8323.08
Goals 2.5Over1.34Under3.77
Both scoreGG1.37NG3.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.34
Over 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.37
GG
73%
Double chance@1.26
12
79%
Season stats
KongsvingerStabaek2.9Goals per game2.4
1.6Conceded per game1.2
2.11Points per game1.96
64%Win rate61%
37Goal difference32
9Form, last 5 (pts)10
Kongsvinger form
LLWLWA Pors Grenland3–1
A Sogndal3–1
H Sandnes ULF4–0
A Stromsgodset5–1
H Ranheim6–2
Stabaek form
WWWDLH ODD Ballklubb2–0
A Asane0–1
H Sandnes ULF4–1
H Strommen2–2
A Haugesund2–0
Head to head
3
Kongsvinger
1
Draw
1
Stabaek
May 2026Stabaek – Kongsvinger2–0
Mar 2026Stabaek – Kongsvinger2–3
Aug 2025Kongsvinger – Stabaek2–1
May 2025Stabaek – Kongsvinger2–2
Mar 2025Kongsvinger – Stabaek1–0
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Haugesund28+3462
2Stromsgodset28+4260
3Kongsvinger28+3759
4Stabaek28+3255
5ODD Ballklubb28+1145
6Bryne28-140
7Ranheim28+338
8hodd28-738
9Strommen28-1036
10Egersund28-1135
Match preview
Our model makes Kongsvinger slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.14 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.9 goals in total (2.14 for Kongsvinger, 1.77 for Stabaek), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kongsvinger sit 3rd on 59 points; Stabaek are 4th on 55.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.