Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
SCOPremiership · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Rugby Park
Kilmarnock
11th · 9 pts3–2FULL TIME
Motherwell
9th · 12 pts30% Kilmarnock
25% Draw
45% Motherwell
OUR PICK
Motherwell to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.23
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.57
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.29X4.0322.23
Goals 2.5Over1.87Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
57%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
KilmarnockMotherwell1.1Goals per game1.2
2.3Conceded per game1.7
0.75Points per game1.00
17%Win rate25%
-15Goal difference-6
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
Kilmarnock form
DLLWLH ST Johnstone2–2
A Dundee3–1
A Falkirk3–0
H Motherwell3–2
A Rangers3–1
Motherwell form
WDLLLH ST Mirren1–0
A ST Johnstone2–2
H Heart Of Midlothian0–2
A Kilmarnock3–2
H Celtic0–2
Head to head
1
Kilmarnock
1
Draw
3
Motherwell
Oct 2026Kilmarnock – Motherwell3–2
Jan 2026Motherwell – Kilmarnock4–0
Nov 2025Kilmarnock – Motherwell1–3
Aug 2025Motherwell – Kilmarnock2–2
May 2025Motherwell – Kilmarnock3–0
Premiership table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Celtic12+1728
2Rangers11+1024
3Heart Of Midlothian11+720
4Falkirk12+318
5Dundee11+417
6Dundee Utd11016
7ST Johnstone12-414
8ST Mirren12-814
9Motherwell12-612
10Aberdeen11-211
Match preview
Our model makes Motherwell slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.23 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.25 for Kilmarnock, 1.57 for Motherwell), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kilmarnock sit 11th on 9 points; Motherwell are 9th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.