Over 1.5 goals@2.15
Over 1.5
47%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 4Thursday, 29 October 2026
Kenya Police
9th · 5 pts1–0FULL TIME
Ulinzi Stars
17th · 2 pts42% Kenya
35% Draw
23% Ulinzi
OUR PICK
Kenya Police to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.38
Expected goals
0.95 – 0.62
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.38X2.8624.34
Goals 2.5Over4.49Under1.26
Both scoreGG3.37NG1.40
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.26
Under 2.5
79%
Both teams to score@1.40
NG
72%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Season stats
Kenya PoliceUlinzi Stars0.8Goals per game0.3
0.8Conceded per game1.0
1.25Points per game0.50
25%Win rate0%
0Goal difference-3
5Form, last 5 (pts)2
Kenya Police form
WDLDLH Ulinzi Stars1–0
A Mombasa Elite0–0
H AFC Leopards1–2
A Migori Youth1–1
A Tusker2–1
Ulinzi Stars form
LDDLWA Kenya Police1–0
H Mara Sugar0–0
A Homeboyz1–1
H Tusker0–2
A Posta Rangers FC0–1
Head to head
1
Kenya
3
Draw
1
Ulinzi
Oct 2026Kenya Police – Ulinzi Stars1–0
Feb 2026Ulinzi Stars – Kenya Police1–1
Oct 2025Kenya Police – Ulinzi Stars0–0
Apr 2025Kenya Police – Ulinzi Stars0–1
Oct 2024Ulinzi Stars – Kenya Police0–0
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Murang'a SEAL5+27
5Migori Youth4+26
6APS Bomet5+26
7Mara Sugar4+16
8Shabana4+16
9Kenya Police405
10Mathare United405
Match preview
Our model makes Kenya Police slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 35% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (0.95 for Kenya Police, 0.62 for Ulinzi Stars), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kenya Police sit 9th on 5 points; Ulinzi Stars are 17th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.