Over 1.5 goals@4.47
Over 1.5
22%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 2Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Kenya Police
4th · 8 pts1–2FULL TIME
AFC Leopards
3rd · 9 pts28% Kenya
50% Draw
23% AFC
OUR PICK
Draw
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.02
Expected goals
0.48 – 0.41
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.61X2.0224.39
Goals 2.5Over15.72Under1.07
Both scoreGG7.26NG1.15
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.07
Under 2.5
94%
Both teams to score@1.15
NG
87%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Season stats
Kenya PoliceAFC Leopards0.8Goals per game0.8
0.6Conceded per game0.2
1.60Points per game1.80
40%Win rate40%
1Goal difference3
8Form, last 5 (pts)9
Kenya Police form
WWDLDA Shabana0–1
H Ulinzi Stars1–0
A Mombasa Elite0–0
H AFC Leopards1–2
A Migori Youth1–1
AFC Leopards form
WDDWDH Homeboyz2–0
A Mara Sugar0–0
H Shabana0–0
A Kenya Police1–2
H Bandari0–0
Head to head
1
Kenya
2
Draw
2
AFC
Oct 2026Kenya Police – AFC Leopards1–2
Apr 2026AFC Leopards – Kenya Police0–3
Dec 2025Kenya Police – AFC Leopards0–0
Mar 2025Kenya Police – AFC Leopards0–0
Dec 2024AFC Leopards – Kenya Police1–0
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Kenya Police5+18
53K5-18
6Murang'a SEAL5+27
7Tusker3+36
8Migori Youth4+26
9APS Bomet5+26
10Shabana506
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Kenya Police 28%, the draw 50%, AFC Leopards 23%.
Our fair price for "Draw" is 2.02 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 0.9 goals in total (0.48 for Kenya Police, 0.41 for AFC Leopards), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kenya Police sit 4th on 8 points; AFC Leopards are 3rd on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.