Over 1.5 goals@1.70
Over 1.5
59%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 4Wednesday, 28 October 2026
KCB
2nd · 10 pts3–1FULL TIME
Mombasa Elite
18th · 1 pts59% KCB
27% Draw
14% Mombasa
OUR PICK
KCB to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.55
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.70X3.7027.03
Goals 2.5Over2.95Under1.47
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.47
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.47
Under 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.47
NG
68%
Double chance@1.17
1X
86%
Season stats
KCBMombasa Elite1.6Goals per game0.4
1.0Conceded per game1.6
2.00Points per game0.20
60%Win rate0%
3Goal difference-6
10Form, last 5 (pts)1
KCB form
WWLWDA GOR Mahia1–2
H Mombasa Elite3–1
A Posta Rangers FC1–0
H Mathare United1–0
A Nairobi United2–2
Mombasa Elite form
LLDLLA Migori Youth2–0
A KCB3–1
H Kenya Police0–0
A Mara Sugar2–1
H Homeboyz0–1
Head to head
1
KCB
0
Draw
0
Mombasa
Oct 2026KCB – Mombasa Elite3–1
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Murang'a SEAL5+27
5Migori Youth4+26
6APS Bomet5+26
7Mara Sugar4+16
8Shabana4+16
9Kenya Police405
10Mathare United405
Match preview
Our model makes KCB clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.43 for KCB, 0.55 for Mombasa Elite), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
KCB sit 2nd on 10 points; Mombasa Elite are 18th on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.