Over 1.5 goals@1.53
Over 1.5
65%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 2Saturday, 17 October 2026
KCB
2nd · 10 pts1–0FULL TIME
Mathare United
12th · 5 pts48% KCB
28% Draw
24% Mathare
OUR PICK
KCB to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.10
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.88
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.10X3.5924.09
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.63
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.77
NG
57%
Double chance@1.32
1X
76%
Season stats
KCBMathare United1.6Goals per game0.6
1.0Conceded per game0.8
2.00Points per game1.00
60%Win rate20%
3Goal difference-1
10Form, last 5 (pts)5
KCB form
WWLWDA GOR Mahia1–2
H Mombasa Elite3–1
A Posta Rangers FC1–0
H Mathare United1–0
A Nairobi United2–2
Mathare United form
LWDLDA Ulinzi Stars2–1
H Tusker2–1
A Migori Youth0–0
A KCB1–0
H APS Bomet0–0
Head to head
2
KCB
1
Draw
2
Mathare
Oct 2026KCB – Mathare United1–0
Jan 2026Mathare United – KCB1–2
Sept 2025KCB – Mathare United0–1
Feb 2025KCB – Mathare United1–1
Nov 2024Mathare United – KCB1–0
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Kenya Police5+18
53K5-18
6Murang'a SEAL5+27
7Tusker3+36
8Migori Youth4+26
9APS Bomet5+26
10Shabana506
Match preview
Our model makes KCB slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.10 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.35 for KCB, 0.88 for Mathare United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
KCB sit 2nd on 10 points; Mathare United are 12th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.