Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
NGANPFL · Matchday 11Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Muhammadu Dikko Stadium
Katsina United
9th · 16 pts2–1FULL TIME
Sporting Lagos
11th · 15 pts37% Katsina
26% Draw
37% Sporting
OUR PICK
Sporting Lagos to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.67
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.38
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.70X3.9122.67
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.79NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.79
GG
56%
Double chance@1.34
12
74%
Season stats
Katsina UnitedSporting Lagos1.3Goals per game1.4
1.4Conceded per game1.3
1.45Points per game1.50
36%Win rate40%
-1Goal difference1
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
Katsina United form
No recent matches.
Sporting Lagos form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Katsina
0
Draw
0
Sporting
These sides haven't met recently.
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Katsina United 37%, the draw 26%, Sporting Lagos 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.67 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.37 for Katsina United, 1.38 for Sporting Lagos), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Katsina United sit 9th on 16 points; Sporting Lagos are 11th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.