Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 10Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium
Kashiwa Reysol
4th · 28 pts1–3FULL TIME
Nagoya Grampus
11th · 14 pts73% Kashiwa
16% Draw
11% Nagoya
OUR PICK
Kashiwa Reysol to win
Model probability 73% · fair odds
1.37
Expected goals
2.57 – 0.92
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.37X6.2928.85
Goals 2.5Over1.48Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.80NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.80
GG
56%
Double chance@1.13
1X
89%
Season stats
Kashiwa ReysolNagoya Grampus2.2Goals per game1.2
1.5Conceded per game1.6
2.15Points per game1.08
69%Win rate31%
10Goal difference-6
10Form, last 5 (pts)8
Kashiwa Reysol form
WDWDLH Urawa4–0
A Ratchaburi0–0
A Kashima2–3
A FC Tokyo0–0
H Nagoya Grampus1–3
Nagoya Grampus form
LLDDWA Vissel Kobe3–1
H Urawa1–2
H Yokohama F. Marinos1–1
H Cerezo Osaka1–1
A Kashiwa Reysol1–3
Head to head
2
Kashiwa
0
Draw
3
Nagoya
Oct 2026Kashiwa Reysol – Nagoya Grampus1–3
Nov 2025Kashiwa Reysol – Nagoya Grampus1–0
Apr 2025Nagoya Grampus – Kashiwa Reysol1–2
Jul 2024Nagoya Grampus – Kashiwa Reysol2–1
Jun 2024Nagoya Grampus – Kashiwa Reysol1–0
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Kashiwa Reysol clear favourites, giving them a 73% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.57 for Kashiwa Reysol, 0.92 for Nagoya Grampus), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kashiwa Reysol sit 4th on 28 points; Nagoya Grampus are 11th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.