JPNJ1 League · Matchday 10Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Mercari Stadium

Kashima

6th · 23 pts

2–0FULL TIME

V-varen Nagasaki

15th · 12 pts

59% Kashima

19% Draw

22% V-varen

OUR PICK

Kashima to win

Model probability 59% · fair odds

1.70

Expected goals

2.40 – 1.43

Confidence

Medium

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.70X5.2324.54

Goals 2.5Over1.36Under3.49

Both scoreGG1.45NG3.04

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.12

Over 1.5

89%

Over/Under 2.5@1.36

Over 2.5

73%

Both teams to score@1.45

69%

Double chance@1.24

81%

Season stats

KashimaV-varen Nagasaki

2.2Goals per game1.2

1.7Conceded per game1.6

1.77Points per game0.92

54%Win rate23%

7Goal difference-5

10Form, last 5 (pts)4

Kashima form

WWLDW

H Cerezo Osaka4–1

H Pohang Steelers3–0

H Kashiwa Reysol2–3

A Kyoto Sanga2–2

H V-varen Nagasaki2–0

V-varen Nagasaki form

LLWLD

H Tokyo Verdy1–2

A Urawa1–0

H Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0

A Kashima2–0

A JEF United Chiba1–1

Head to head

Kashima

Draw

V-varen

Oct 2026Kashima – V-varen Nagasaki2–0

Jul 2025Kashima – V-varen Nagasaki2–1

Aug 2021Kashima – V-varen Nagasaki3–1

Dec 2019Kashima – V-varen Nagasaki3–2

Aug 2018V-varen Nagasaki – Kashima1–2

J1 League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1FC Tokyo13+2330

2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229

3Machida Zelvia13+2028

4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028

5Vissel Kobe13+926

6Kashima13+723

7Kawasaki Frontale13+522

8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621

9Urawa13-621

10Fagiano Okayama13-616

Match preview

Our model makes Kashima clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.40 for Kashima, 1.43 for V-varen Nagasaki), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Kashima sit 6th on 23 points; V-varen Nagasaki are 15th on 12.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

Discuss on Telegram More J1 League tips