Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Mercari Stadium
Kashima
6th · 23 pts2–3FULL TIME
Kashiwa Reysol
4th · 28 pts46% Kashima
20% Draw
33% Kashiwa
OUR PICK
Kashima to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
2.21 – 1.86
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.15X4.9323.01
Goals 2.5Over1.30Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.33NG3.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.33
GG
75%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
KashimaKashiwa Reysol2.2Goals per game2.2
1.7Conceded per game1.5
1.77Points per game2.15
54%Win rate69%
7Goal difference10
10Form, last 5 (pts)10
Kashima form
WWLDWH Cerezo Osaka4–1
H Pohang Steelers3–0
H Kashiwa Reysol2–3
A Kyoto Sanga2–2
H V-varen Nagasaki2–0
Kashiwa Reysol form
WDWDLH Urawa4–0
A Ratchaburi0–0
A Kashima2–3
A FC Tokyo0–0
H Nagoya Grampus1–3
Head to head
4
Kashima
0
Draw
1
Kashiwa
Oct 2026Kashima – Kashiwa Reysol2–3
Apr 2026Kashiwa Reysol – Kashima0–1
Feb 2026Kashima – Kashiwa Reysol2–0
Jul 2025Kashima – Kashiwa Reysol3–2
Mar 2025Kashiwa Reysol – Kashima1–3
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Kashima slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (2.21 for Kashima, 1.86 for Kashiwa Reysol), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kashima sit 6th on 23 points; Kashiwa Reysol are 4th on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.