Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
85%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 13Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Mercari Stadium
Kashima
6th · 23 pts4–1FULL TIME
Cerezo Osaka
12th · 14 pts63% Kashima
19% Draw
18% Cerezo
OUR PICK
Kashima to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.59
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.13
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.59X5.1725.58
Goals 2.5Over1.52Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
61%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
KashimaCerezo Osaka2.2Goals per game1.0
1.7Conceded per game1.8
1.77Points per game1.08
54%Win rate23%
7Goal difference-10
10Form, last 5 (pts)3
Kashima form
No recent matches.
Cerezo Osaka form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Kashima
0
Draw
0
Cerezo
These sides haven't met recently.
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Kashima clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.59 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.26 for Kashima, 1.13 for Cerezo Osaka), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kashima sit 6th on 23 points; Cerezo Osaka are 12th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.