Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
TURSüper Lig · Matchday 8Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium
Kasımpaşa
5th · 17 pts4–1FULL TIME
Samsunspor
17th · 4 pts66% Kasımpaşa
20% Draw
14% Samsunspor
OUR PICK
Kasımpaşa to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.51
Expected goals
2.11 – 0.85
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.51X5.1027.13
Goals 2.5Over1.76Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
KasımpaşaSamsunspor1.5Goals per game1.0
1.1Conceded per game2.6
1.70Points per game0.40
40%Win rate10%
4Goal difference-16
8Form, last 5 (pts)0
Kasımpaşa form
DWWWLH Beşiktaş2–2
H Çorluspor 19473–1
A Eyüpspor0–1
H Samsunspor4–1
A Galatasaray3–1
Samsunspor form
LLLLLA Başakşehir5–2
H Amed1–2
A Kasımpaşa4–1
H Trabzonspor0–3
A Erzurumspor FK1–0
Head to head
0
Kasımpaşa
0
Draw
0
Samsunspor
These sides haven't met recently.
Süper Lig table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Galatasaray10+1125
2Amed10+1423
3Trabzonspor10+1622
4Beşiktaş10+819
5Kasımpaşa10+417
6Fenerbahçe10+1416
7Çorum FK10+516
8Kocaelispor10+216
9Göztepe10+415
10Başakşehir10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Kasımpaşa clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.11 for Kasımpaşa, 0.85 for Samsunspor), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kasımpaşa sit 5th on 17 points; Samsunspor are 17th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.