Over 1.5 goals@1.79
Over 1.5
56%
KENFKF Premier League · FinalTuesday, 6 October 2026
Kariobangi Sharks
16th · 38 pts13:00KICK-OFF WAT
Mombasa Elite
37% Kariobangi
32% Draw
30% Mombasa
OUR PICK
Kariobangi Sharks to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.67
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.87
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.67X3.1223.28
Goals 2.5Over3.25Under1.40
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.58
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.40
Under 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.58
NG
63%
Double chance@1.44
1X
70%
Kariobangi Sharks form
LLWDH Mombasa Elite0–2
A Mombasa Elite2–1
H Sofapaka6–0
A Kenya Police1–1
Mombasa Elite form
LLDLLA Migori Youth2–0
A KCB3–1
H Kenya Police0–0
A Mara Sugar2–1
H Homeboyz0–1
Head to head
0
Kariobangi
0
Draw
2
Mombasa
Oct 2026Kariobangi Sharks – Mombasa Elite0–2
Oct 2026Mombasa Elite – Kariobangi Sharks2–1
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia34+2869
2AFC Leopards34+1664
3Police34+1055
4Nairobi United34+1053
5Shabana34+152
6Homeboyz34+1049
7KCB34-148
8Murang'a SEAL34+147
9Tusker34-545
10APS Bomet34+244
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Kariobangi Sharks 37%, the draw 32%, Mombasa Elite 30%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.67 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.00 for Kariobangi Sharks, 0.87 for Mombasa Elite), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.