Over 1.5 goals@2.20
Over 1.5
46%
ZIMPremier Soccer League · Matchday 31Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Nyamhunga Stadium
Kariba
14th · 33 pts0–1FULL TIME
Agama
15th · 31 pts44% Kariba
35% Draw
21% Agama
OUR PICK
Kariba to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
0.97 – 0.57
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.27X2.8524.77
Goals 2.5Over4.72Under1.25
Both scoreGG3.49NG1.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.25
Under 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.37
NG
73%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Season stats
KaribaAgama0.6Goals per game0.7
0.8Conceded per game1.3
1.03Points per game0.97
19%Win rate25%
-9Goal difference-20
5Form, last 5 (pts)9
Kariba form
DLWLDA Chicken Inn0–0
H Agama0–1
H Scotland Mabvuku1–0
A Platinum1–0
H Simba Bhora0–0
Agama form
WWLLWH TelOne3–2
A Kariba0–1
H Hunters1–2
A Scotland Mabvuku3–0
H Manica Diamonds1–0
Head to head
0
Kariba
1
Draw
1
Agama
Oct 2026Kariba – Agama0–1
May 2026Agama – Kariba1–1
Premier Soccer League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hardrock32+3669
2Scotland Mabvuku31+3564
3Ngezi Platinum32+1356
4Dynamos32+1752
5CAPS United32+1051
6Herentals32-148
7MWOS32+945
8Highlanders32+444
9Platinum32043
10Chicken Inn31-143
Match preview
Our model makes Kariba slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 35% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.5 goals in total (0.97 for Kariba, 0.57 for Agama), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kariba sit 14th on 33 points; Agama are 15th on 31.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.