Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
GHAPremier League · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Naa Sheriga Sports Centre
Karela
14th · 10 pts1–0FULL TIME
Dreams
18th · 6 pts45% Karela
26% Draw
29% Dreams
OUR PICK
Karela to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.24
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.10
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.24X3.7923.45
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
KarelaDreams0.9Goals per game0.9
1.2Conceded per game1.6
1.11Points per game0.67
33%Win rate11%
-3Goal difference-6
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Karela form
DLLWLA Young Apostles0–0
H Port City1–2
A Swedru All Blacks2–0
H Dreams1–0
A Asante Kotoko1–0
Dreams form
WLDLDA Basake Holy Stars0–1
H Vision1–3
A Port City1–1
A Karela1–0
H Hearts of Oak0–0
Head to head
3
Karela
1
Draw
1
Dreams
Oct 2026Karela – Dreams1–0
Feb 2026Dreams – Karela0–1
Nov 2025Karela – Dreams1–1
Apr 2025Karela – Dreams1–2
Nov 2024Dreams – Karela0–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Medeama9+718
2Samartex9+518
3Hearts of Oak9+617
4Aduana Stars9+416
5Port City9+415
6Ashanti Gold9+214
7Swedru All Blacks9+214
8Bechem United9+113
9Asante Kotoko9013
10Basake Holy Stars9-412
Match preview
Our model makes Karela slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.43 for Karela, 1.10 for Dreams), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Karela sit 14th on 10 points; Dreams are 18th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.