Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
NGANPFL · Matchday 7Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Sani Abacha Stadium
Kano Pillars
4th · 18 pts1–1FULL TIME
Sporting Lagos
11th · 15 pts48% Kano
25% Draw
27% Sporting
OUR PICK
Kano Pillars to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.09
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.09
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.09X3.9423.74
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Kano PillarsSporting Lagos1.3Goals per game1.4
1.0Conceded per game1.3
1.64Points per game1.50
36%Win rate40%
3Goal difference1
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
Kano Pillars form
WDWLDH Nasarawa United2–0
A Warri Wolves0–0
H Katsina United1–0
A Plateau United4–0
A Shooting Stars0–0
Sporting Lagos form
LWWDDA Katsina United2–1
A Plateau United2–3
H Bendel Insurance2–1
A Kano Pillars1–1
H Ikorodu City0–0
Head to head
1
Kano
1
Draw
1
Sporting
Oct 2026Kano Pillars – Sporting Lagos1–1
Mar 2024Kano Pillars – Sporting Lagos1–0
Nov 2023Sporting Lagos – Kano Pillars3–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Kano Pillars slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.09 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.55 for Kano Pillars, 1.09 for Sporting Lagos), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Kano Pillars sit 4th on 18 points; Sporting Lagos are 11th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.