Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
62%
BRASerie B · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estádio Alfredo Jaconi
Juventude
1st · 65 pts2–2FULL TIME
São Bernardo
11th · 49 pts51% Juventude
28% Draw
21% São
OUR PICK
Juventude to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.96
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.74
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.96X3.5324.84
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.53
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.63
NG
61%
Double chance@1.26
1X
79%
Season stats
JuventudeSão Bernardo1.3Goals per game1.4
0.7Conceded per game1.1
1.81Points per game1.40
50%Win rate37%
22Goal difference10
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Juventude form
DWDDWA Vila Nova2–2
H Nautico Recife4–0
A Ceara2–2
H São Bernardo2–2
A Ponte Preta0–2
São Bernardo form
WWLDLA Cuiaba1–2
H Vila Nova3–2
H Criciuma0–1
A Juventude2–2
A Sport Recife2–1
Head to head
1
Juventude
1
Draw
0
São
Oct 2026Juventude – São Bernardo2–2
Jun 2026São Bernardo – Juventude0–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Juventude36+2265
2Novorizontino35+3264
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10Operario-PR35-151
Match preview
Our model makes Juventude slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.96 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.34 for Juventude, 0.74 for São Bernardo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Juventude sit 1st on 65 points; São Bernardo are 11th on 49.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.