Over 1.5 goals@1.51
Over 1.5
66%
BRASerie B · Matchday 31Friday, 2 October 2026 · Estádio Alfredo Jaconi
Juventude
2nd · 65 pts3–0FULL TIME
Operario-PR
11th · 51 pts56% Juventude
26% Draw
18% Operario-PR
OUR PICK
Juventude to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.80
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.75
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.80X3.8625.43
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.30NG1.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.70
NG
59%
Double chance@1.23
1X
82%
Season stats
JuventudeOperario-PR1.3Goals per game1.3
0.7Conceded per game1.3
1.81Points per game1.42
50%Win rate39%
22Goal difference-2
9Form, last 5 (pts)3
Juventude form
DWDDWA Vila Nova2–2
H Nautico Recife4–0
A Ceara2–2
H São Bernardo2–2
A Ponte Preta0–2
Operario-PR form
LWLLLA Novorizontino2–1
H Athletic Club1–0
A America Mineiro1–0
H Goias0–2
H Botafogo SP1–2
Head to head
2
Juventude
0
Draw
2
Operario-PR
Oct 2026Juventude – Operario-PR3–0
Jun 2026Operario-PR – Juventude2–1
Dec 2020Operario-PR – Juventude3–0
Sept 2020Juventude – Operario-PR1–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Juventude clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.80 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.52 for Juventude, 0.75 for Operario-PR), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Juventude sit 2nd on 65 points; Operario-PR are 11th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.