Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
61%
BRASerie B · Matchday 35Monday, 26 October 2026 · Estádio Alfredo Jaconi
Juventude
1st · 65 pts4–0FULL TIME
Nautico Recife
14th · 46 pts55% Juventude
28% Draw
18% Nautico
OUR PICK
Juventude to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.67
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.83X3.6325.60
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.52
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.58
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.58
NG
63%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
JuventudeNautico Recife1.3Goals per game1.1
0.7Conceded per game1.3
1.81Points per game1.28
50%Win rate33%
22Goal difference-6
9Form, last 5 (pts)4
Juventude form
DWDDWA Vila Nova2–2
H Nautico Recife4–0
A Ceara2–2
H São Bernardo2–2
A Ponte Preta0–2
Nautico Recife form
WLDLLH Avai1–0
A Juventude4–0
A Goias0–0
H Vila Nova0–2
H Novorizontino0–2
Head to head
2
Juventude
2
Draw
1
Nautico
Oct 2026Juventude – Nautico Recife4–0
Jul 2026Nautico Recife – Juventude0–0
Nov 2020Juventude – Nautico Recife1–0
Aug 2020Nautico Recife – Juventude3–3
Sept 2019Nautico Recife – Juventude2–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Juventude36+2265
2Novorizontino35+3264
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10Operario-PR35-151
Match preview
Our model makes Juventude clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.83 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.40 for Juventude, 0.67 for Nautico Recife), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Juventude sit 1st on 65 points; Nautico Recife are 14th on 46.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.