Over 1.5 goals@1.60
Over 1.5
63%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 10Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Parque Artigas
Juventud
9th · 41 pts2–0FULL TIME
Racing Montevideo
5th · 60 pts26% Juventud
29% Draw
45% Racing
OUR PICK
Racing Montevideo to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.24
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.24
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.80X3.4322.24
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.55
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.71
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.71
NG
58%
Double chance@1.36
X2
74%
Season stats
JuventudRacing Montevideo1.1Goals per game1.3
1.2Conceded per game0.9
1.17Points per game1.71
29%Win rate46%
-6Goal difference14
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
Juventud form
LWDLWA Liverpool Montevideo2–0
A Nacional Florida0–2
H Penarol0–0
A Progreso2–0
H Racing Montevideo2–0
Racing Montevideo form
WDWLLH Cerro Largo3–1
A Defensor Sporting3–3
H Wanderers3–0
A Juventud2–0
H Penarol0–1
Head to head
3
Juventud
1
Draw
1
Racing
Oct 2026Juventud – Racing Montevideo2–0
Sept 2026Juventud – Racing Montevideo3–0
Apr 2026Racing Montevideo – Juventud2–1
Oct 2025Racing Montevideo – Juventud0–0
Jun 2025Juventud – Racing Montevideo2–1
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Racing Montevideo slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.88 for Juventud, 1.24 for Racing Montevideo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Juventud sit 9th on 41 points; Racing Montevideo are 5th on 60.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.