Over 1.5 goals@1.49
Over 1.5
67%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 12Friday, 23 October 2026 · Estadio Centenario
Juventud
9th · 41 pts0–0FULL TIME
Penarol
1st · 65 pts25% Juventud
27% Draw
48% Penarol
OUR PICK
Penarol to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.09
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.39
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.02X3.6622.09
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.69
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.82
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.69
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.82
NG
55%
Double chance@1.33
X2
75%
Season stats
JuventudPenarol1.1Goals per game1.5
1.2Conceded per game0.8
1.21Points per game1.86
29%Win rate54%
-4Goal difference24
6Form, last 5 (pts)6
Juventud form
LWDLWA Liverpool Montevideo2–0
A Nacional Florida0–2
H Penarol0–0
A Progreso2–0
H Racing Montevideo2–0
Penarol form
DLDLDH Wanderers1–1
H Atletico Torque0–2
A Juventud0–0
A Liverpool Montevideo1–0
H Progreso1–1
Head to head
0
Juventud
3
Draw
2
Penarol
Oct 2026Juventud – Penarol0–0
Apr 2026Penarol – Juventud2–2
Sept 2025Penarol – Juventud1–0
Mar 2025Juventud – Penarol0–2
Sept 2019Juventud – Penarol1–1
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Penarol slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.09 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (0.92 for Juventud, 1.39 for Penarol), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Juventud sit 9th on 41 points; Penarol are 1st on 65.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.