Over 1.5 goals@1.23
Over 1.5
81%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 4Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · Estadio Romelio Martinez
Junior
2nd · 35 pts1–1FULL TIME
Deportivo Pereira
20th · 10 pts72% Junior
17% Draw
11% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Junior to win
Model probability 72% · fair odds
1.39
Expected goals
2.32 – 0.78
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.39X5.8129.16
Goals 2.5Over1.67Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.95
NG
51%
Double chance@1.12
1X
89%
Season stats
JuniorDeportivo Pereira1.6Goals per game0.8
1.3Conceded per game1.7
1.84Points per game0.53
58%Win rate5%
7Goal difference-17
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
Junior form
LDWDDA Llaneros3–2
A Chico1–1
H Águilas Doradas1–0
A Deportivo Cali0–0
H Deportivo Pereira1–1
Deportivo Pereira form
WDWDDH Jaguares1–0
A Once Caldas1–1
H Chico2–0
A Junior1–1
H Deportivo Cali0–0
Head to head
3
Junior
1
Draw
1
Deportivo
Oct 2026Junior – Deportivo Pereira1–1
Feb 2026Deportivo Pereira – Junior2–3
Oct 2025Junior – Deportivo Pereira3–2
Apr 2025Deportivo Pereira – Junior1–0
Oct 2024Junior – Deportivo Pereira3–1
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Junior clear favourites, giving them a 72% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.32 for Junior, 0.78 for Deportivo Pereira), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Junior sit 2nd on 35 points; Deportivo Pereira are 20th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.