Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 11Monday, 19 October 2026 · Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch
Jong Utrecht
20th · 7 pts1–2FULL TIME
Roda
4th · 25 pts27% Jong
24% Draw
48% Roda
OUR PICK
Roda to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.07
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.66
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.65X4.1222.07
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Jong UtrechtRoda1.6Goals per game1.3
2.6Conceded per game0.9
0.58Points per game1.92
17%Win rate54%
-12Goal difference5
3Form, last 5 (pts)10
Jong Utrecht form
LLLLWA FC Volendam6–2
H Roda1–2
A De Graafschap2–1
H VVV Venlo1–3
H Jong Ajax6–1
Roda form
WWWWDH Jong AZ2–1
H De Graafschap1–0
A Almere City FC2–3
A Jong Utrecht1–2
H Jong PSV U211–1
Head to head
0
Jong
1
Draw
4
Roda
Oct 2026Jong Utrecht – Roda1–2
Dec 2025Jong Utrecht – Roda1–3
Nov 2025Roda – Jong Utrecht1–1
Jan 2025Roda – Jong Utrecht3–0
Nov 2024Jong Utrecht – Roda1–3
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Roda slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.07 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.19 for Jong Utrecht, 1.66 for Roda), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Jong Utrecht sit 20th on 7 points; Roda are 4th on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.